well the iPhone turned out to be a non starter (draconian dev licensing)
Why Draconian dev licensing? I only read of two development programs (99$ or 299$), and I'm aware that you can sell apps only through the Apple Store, but if you wrote that there is obviosly something else I don't know about. They hinder the creation of third party tools for iPhone development? Just curious.
Android could became very popular too, and reminds more of a Pocket PC for the liberty given for the installation of third party apps and games (they also advertise various features which always were in Pocket PC's, like text cut'n'paste). I'm curious to see how much it will sell. However, at the moment Apple has already given a business proven platform for commercial products (though ethically questionable, having everything in a single store caters all users in the same place, and the userbase is really big... granted, it also means that you really don't have a choice if you don't like their practices - like removing everything they don't like - or have had bad experiences).