2 choices does not equal a 50:50 probability. You can either win or lose in the lottery, but the probability is not 0.5.
1 in a couple million
1 in 14 million for the uk one iir
edit
must not type when using high res i cant see what im doing and misread the first quoite
afaik heads or tails is 50:50 thats 2 choices (a single coin toss that is not best of 3 or 3billion)
now IF you call heads or tails then its no longer 50:50 you have
call side tails tails tails heads heads heads heads tails