There are a lot of people who want to be indie developers, and have been trying to finish their first game for years. That doesn't stop them posting on forums. Within a few months of releasing our first game, most of what I had thought to be true turned out to be complete bollocks. If I'd have been posting before we had a game out, I'd have been talking a lot of rubbish.
Exactly why I rarely post about the game I'm working on. Sort of a "hex" thing. If I talk about it too much, it'll never get finished. Heck. I might not even need the benefit of a hex to make that true.
Damp:
I enjoyed the article, but I sort of sit in the same thought as everyone else. You seem to have a solid idea of what to do to be successful. If you haven't done it yourself, it just seems like a research paper more than anything else. A research paper isn't necessarily void of credibility, but you need to be honest with your audience and let them know. That means siting your sources to maintain your credibility.