Kind of hard to predict, but consider the following:
compare the price of a CD-R with a DVD-R, both have been out for years now. If you look around, you can find name-brand DVD-R's probably for about $0.50/each, and name-brand CD-R's for $0.15 or so.
dual-layer DVD-R's are still $2-$3 each.
Two big issues:
- Technology. the high-density formats are technically more difficult to create, and especially more difficult to create without flaws. There's also more work involved (e.g. dual layer vs. single layer), making the more advanced forms more expensive to produce.
- Economy of scale. The more demand there is for a certain type of media, the more manufacturers will start creating it. The production equipment gets cheaper since they sell more machines, and there is more competition among media manufactuers driving the price down.
Since it is near impossible at this point to predict what kind of market adoption either bluray or hd-dvd will get, it's also near impossible to product what kind of level the price of the media will end up at. If neither gets any significant adoptance, prices will remain high.
(right now a writable 25GB bluray disc (BD-ROM) is about $15 for a single disc. Equal storage space on DVD-R is around $2.50, making DVD's far more economical than bluray at this time, aside from the fact that pretty much noone (at least no-one in their right mind) has a bluray drive in their PC at the moment.
compare the price of a CD-R with a DVD-R, both have been out for years now. If you look around, you can find name-brand DVD-R's probably for about $0.50/each, and name-brand CD-R's for $0.15 or so.
dual-layer DVD-R's are still $2-$3 each.
Two big issues:
- Technology. the high-density formats are technically more difficult to create, and especially more difficult to create without flaws. There's also more work involved (e.g. dual layer vs. single layer), making the more advanced forms more expensive to produce.
- Economy of scale. The more demand there is for a certain type of media, the more manufacturers will start creating it. The production equipment gets cheaper since they sell more machines, and there is more competition among media manufactuers driving the price down.
Since it is near impossible at this point to predict what kind of market adoption either bluray or hd-dvd will get, it's also near impossible to product what kind of level the price of the media will end up at. If neither gets any significant adoptance, prices will remain high.
(right now a writable 25GB bluray disc (BD-ROM) is about $15 for a single disc. Equal storage space on DVD-R is around $2.50, making DVD's far more economical than bluray at this time, aside from the fact that pretty much noone (at least no-one in their right mind) has a bluray drive in their PC at the moment.