no there will be a 600 or 9600GT for about $200 - $300 within a year that will be great for vista and DX10 and beat current cards at DX9.
So you think that people are willing to pay more than $600 USD (for a new graphics card, and a new OS, never mind what Dell is going to charge them for the upgrade) just to play a single game? Why for that price they could get a PS3. You won't need to upgrade your CPU if and possibly not your ram if you bought yout computer in the last year.
You wouldn't want to upgrade your computer at all if you bought in the last year, and it's still covered by warranty.I'm not talking about the technophiles and geeks here, I'm talking about normal rational people, who make common sense, pragmatic decisions on when to acquire discontinuous high-tech products. Those people who make up 66% of the total market, and are your only chance for sustaining a mainstream market product.
Vista is the new Linux.