ok, here's the thing. I'd say yeah 640x480 16 bit BUT looking at all those web stats out there, most customers have XP and you know that they are probably on some Dell crap with TFT minimum, and hardly anyone would browse the net in 640x480, and these are the people downloading your game.
Also, and this is a big one, portals no longer accept games that aren't well produced enough. This means using 3D effects like Max can do. Now if you have a card that can do 3D stuff, DirectX7, it can do 800x600, maybe not 32 bit but HIGHLY likely. So if your game is in Max, doing it in 640x480 may mean portals won't accept it and players will think it looks old style. Also if they run it in windowed mode on their 1024x768 (whatever) TFT, it will look tiny and silly.
I think higher than 800x600 is not good right now though. Maybe in another year or two.
Also, and this is a big one, portals no longer accept games that aren't well produced enough. This means using 3D effects like Max can do. Now if you have a card that can do 3D stuff, DirectX7, it can do 800x600, maybe not 32 bit but HIGHLY likely. So if your game is in Max, doing it in 640x480 may mean portals won't accept it and players will think it looks old style. Also if they run it in windowed mode on their 1024x768 (whatever) TFT, it will look tiny and silly.
I think higher than 800x600 is not good right now though. Maybe in another year or two.