Back when Quake first came out, I was very excited about the ability to walk around, and almost exist, in a virtual 3D world that I could create and remodel as I pleased. The thought of what the future might hold, when the technology caught up with our ideas, seemed really amazing. It's why I got into computer graphics in the first place.
It seems like FPS games have kind of hit a wall. All the focus now is on subtle surface-rendering effects. I don't want to play a game with a bazooka so that I can notice "the subtle interplay of normal mapped diffuse and specular lighting...".
I submit that FPS technology is not actually progressing much, even in graphics. Shaders were supposed to be the end-all, be-all technology upgrade, but about the only thing they turned out to be useful for was making pretty water. Graphics are getting more stylized, like a comic book, but I wouldn't say they are getting more realistic. Add some stencil shadows and a few shaders to Unreal Engine 2, and you have a next-gen engine.
An exquisite rendering of a plastic-molded action figure. Notice the seam running down the middle, from the injection molding process:

I think that the technology is stabilizing. The engines you use now will be good for another five years. The next graphical breakthrough isn't going to happen for a long time. I think the next breakthrough is going to be in the level of interaction. We're still moving around in the world, unable to touch or effect anything except my shooting it, or more recently, ramming our faces up against it.
Why are FPS games still so linear? HL2 promised an entire city to explore, but delivered only linear corridors. The point has been made that these kind of games might not even be considered true 3D, due to their linear nature. Why not create a world where everything can be interacted with, according to certain rules? Why not create a world where you can leave your virtual home, built on your virtual property, and travel in your car to a movie theater, buy a ticket, and watch a real movie? Why can't I just get in my virtual car and drive anywhere? Why can't I buy a gun and go kill another player, and steal their car, then get pulled over by another player working as a virtual cop? Why can't my AI neighbor stop by and ask how my day in the real world went? What's the difference between working on your computer, and working on a virtual computer in a virtual world? If money starts changing hands, and virtual real estate is being sold along Highway 17, where do you draw the lines of reality?
These examples are just ideas, but my point is, we have the ability to create a "matrix" virtual environment, yet we are just creating hallways with ever-shinier wallpaper.
Just some thoughts.
It seems like FPS games have kind of hit a wall. All the focus now is on subtle surface-rendering effects. I don't want to play a game with a bazooka so that I can notice "the subtle interplay of normal mapped diffuse and specular lighting...".
I submit that FPS technology is not actually progressing much, even in graphics. Shaders were supposed to be the end-all, be-all technology upgrade, but about the only thing they turned out to be useful for was making pretty water. Graphics are getting more stylized, like a comic book, but I wouldn't say they are getting more realistic. Add some stencil shadows and a few shaders to Unreal Engine 2, and you have a next-gen engine.
An exquisite rendering of a plastic-molded action figure. Notice the seam running down the middle, from the injection molding process:

I think that the technology is stabilizing. The engines you use now will be good for another five years. The next graphical breakthrough isn't going to happen for a long time. I think the next breakthrough is going to be in the level of interaction. We're still moving around in the world, unable to touch or effect anything except my shooting it, or more recently, ramming our faces up against it.
Why are FPS games still so linear? HL2 promised an entire city to explore, but delivered only linear corridors. The point has been made that these kind of games might not even be considered true 3D, due to their linear nature. Why not create a world where everything can be interacted with, according to certain rules? Why not create a world where you can leave your virtual home, built on your virtual property, and travel in your car to a movie theater, buy a ticket, and watch a real movie? Why can't I just get in my virtual car and drive anywhere? Why can't I buy a gun and go kill another player, and steal their car, then get pulled over by another player working as a virtual cop? Why can't my AI neighbor stop by and ask how my day in the real world went? What's the difference between working on your computer, and working on a virtual computer in a virtual world? If money starts changing hands, and virtual real estate is being sold along Highway 17, where do you draw the lines of reality?
These examples are just ideas, but my point is, we have the ability to create a "matrix" virtual environment, yet we are just creating hallways with ever-shinier wallpaper.
Just some thoughts.